Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 40%, yet in-form Widzew Łódź provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Widzew Łódź at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 May 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Zaglebie Lubin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record at KGHM Zaglebie Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at KGHM Zaglebie Arena than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Widzew Łódź are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zaglebie Lubin's 20% rate and Widzew Łódź's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 3 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 47% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Widzew Łódź 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.824 / defence 0.898 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.871 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Zaglebie Lubin games / 34 Widzew Łódź games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 40% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 28%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Widzew Łódź 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Widzew Łódź (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 20% | Widzew Łódź 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 4W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 3W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Zaglebie Lubin 10 – 10 Widzew Łódź • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Zaglebie Lubin 50% / Draw 12% / Widzew Łódź 38% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 40% / draw 32% / away 28% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.05 (34% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 42% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L • Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W • Zaglebie Lubin home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | CS 5 • Widzew Łódź away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 3 • Form edge: Widzew Łódź lead by 0.80 PPG (1.50 vs 0.70) • xG vs form (Zaglebie Lubin): Poisson projects 1.15 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Widzew Łódź): Poisson xG of 0.91 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.70 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.0 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.05 (66% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: strong NO — form rates Zaglebie Lubin 2/10, Widzew Łódź 3/10; Poisson BTTS probability 42% — clean-sheet signal corroborated • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Widzew Łódź on PPG but Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin higher (40% vs 28% for Widzew Łódź) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 40% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 / Widzew Łódź 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.824 / def 0.898 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.871 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Widzew Łódź xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 40% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
• Record (8 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 4W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 3W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Zaglebie Lubin 10 – 10 Widzew Łódź • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Zaglebie Lubin 50% / Draw 12% / Widzew Łódź 38% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 40% / draw 32% / away 28% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.05 (34% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 42% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L • Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W • Zaglebie Lubin home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | CS 5 • Widzew Łódź away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 3 • Form edge: Widzew Łódź lead by 0.80 PPG (1.50 vs 0.70) • xG vs form (Zaglebie Lubin): Poisson projects 1.15 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Widzew Łódź): Poisson xG of 0.91 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.70 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.0 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.05 (66% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: strong NO — form rates Zaglebie Lubin 2/10, Widzew Łódź 3/10; Poisson BTTS probability 42% — clean-sheet signal corroborated • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Widzew Łódź on PPG but Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin higher (40% vs 28% for Widzew Łódź) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture