Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Widzew Łódź at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zaglebie Lubin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Widzew Łódź in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 2 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 52% versus Widzew Łódź 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.24 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.839 / defence 1.184 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.888 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.242. Data: 65 Zaglebie Lubin games / 64 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 38%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Widzew Łódź 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Widzew Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.24 / Widzew Łódź 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.839 / def 1.184 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.888 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Widzew Łódź xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 35% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
Record (5 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 2W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 2W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.67
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.54
1.30
Widzew Łódź xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.30 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 21W 14D 29L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 23W 14D 27L from 64 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.20 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.32 PPG from 31 outings (11W 8D 12L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 7W 11D 13L from 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.23 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 21W 14D 29L in their last 64 games (1.20 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.32 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Widzew Łódź won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 52%, Widzew Łódź 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 52% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 71% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 52% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.24 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.30 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 38%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.