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Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.24 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.30 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 38%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights