Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KGHM Zaglebie Arena plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Zaglebie Lubin's favour (1.50 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 4 for Raków Częstochowa and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2026, ended 3–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 50% versus Raków Częstochowa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Raków Częstochowa 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.930 / defence 0.763 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.895 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.253. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Zaglebie Lubin games / 42 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Draw 35% | Raków Częstochowa 19%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.13 | Draw 2.86 | Raków Częstochowa 5.26. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Raków Częstochowa 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Draw 35% | Raków Częstochowa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 / Raków Częstochowa 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.930 / def 0.763 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.895 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Raków Częstochowa xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 47% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (10 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 4W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 4W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.90x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
47%
2.15
35%
2.89
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.28
0.86
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.15
47%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
5%
21.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.86 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 42 games, going 17W 12D 13L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.31 PPG from 42 outings (16W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.31 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 10W 6D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.48 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 17W 12D 13L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 19L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.80 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-3 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 40%, Raków Częstochowa 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 65% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 75% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 65% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.