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Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.70 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.55 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.11 / defence 0.61, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 17% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 58%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 46%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights