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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 17

Kick-off

Sun 30 Nov 2025

16:30

Venue

KGHM Zaglebie Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Zaglebie Lubin Win

45%

Zaglebie Lubin

2.23

27%

Draw

3.65

28%

Jagiellonia

3.61

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.3%

Home win

1 – 0

9.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.63

Zaglebie Lubin xG

Total xG

2.87

1.24

Jagiellonia xG

45%
27%
28%
Zaglebie LubinDrawJagiellonia

2.23

45%

Home win

3.65

27%

Draw

3.61

28%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.70

41%

BTTS No

2.42

Clean Sheet

29%

Zaglebie Lubin

3.47

20%

Jagiellonia

5.10

Win to Nil

13%

Zaglebie Lubin

7.72

5%

Jagiellonia

18.42

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 7.0 4.4 1.8 0.6 0.1
1 9.2 11.5 7.1 3.0 0.9 0.2
2 7.5 9.3 5.8 2.4 0.7 0.2
3 4.1 5.1 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 1.7 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2
5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.630
λ Away (xG) 1.244
Total xG 2.874
League avg home goals 1.676
League avg away goals 1.257
Zaglebie Lubin attack strength 1.286
Zaglebie Lubin defence strength 0.959
Jagiellonia attack strength 1.032
Jagiellonia defence strength 0.756
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 48