Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Zaglebie Lubin take on Gornik Zabrze.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Gornik Zabrze at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 5W 2D 3L at KGHM Zaglebie Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.60 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Zaglebie Lubin hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 3 for Gornik Zabrze, with 1 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The historical record gives Zaglebie Lubin a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 49% versus Gornik Zabrze 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Gornik Zabrze 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 0.81 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.766 / defence 0.697 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.068 / defence 0.654. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Zaglebie Lubin's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gornik Zabrze's defence strength of 0.654 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Zaglebie Lubin games / 47 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 27% | Draw 38% | Gornik Zabrze 35%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.70 | Draw 2.63 | Gornik Zabrze 2.86. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 27% | Draw 38% | Gornik Zabrze 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 0.81 / Gornik Zabrze 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.766 / def 0.697 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.068 / def 0.654 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Gornik Zabrze xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 27% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 35% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (10 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 6W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.75
38%
2.63
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
1.77
0.96
Gornik Zabrze xG
3.75
27%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 16.4 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.96 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 19W 13D 15L from 47 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 11L across 47 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.49 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 12W 7D 5L from 24 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gornik Zabrze's away record stands at 10W 9D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.51 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 13D 15L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 24W 12D 11L in their last 47 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.79 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zaglebie Lubin go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 38%, Gornik Zabrze 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 38% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze in 42%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 38% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.