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Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Zaglebie Lubin 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.52 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.85 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.99 / defence 0.74 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 5/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 52% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 20%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 20%, Zaglebie Lubin 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Zaglebie Lubin managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights