🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Wisla Plock and Wieczysta Kraków meet at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 April 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wisla Plock haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Orlen Stadion, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.32 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.751 / defence 1.083 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Wisla Plock games / 0 Wieczysta Kraków games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 41% | Draw 30% | Wieczysta Kraków 29%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Wieczysta Kraków 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights