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Wisla Plock cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Piast Gliwice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Piast Gliwice 2-0 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.33 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 2/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 38% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 35%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 50%, Piast Gliwice 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Piast Gliwice shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights