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Wisla Plock cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nieciecza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Nieciecza 3-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.35 xG and Nieciecza 1.05 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.80 / defence 0.85 against Nieciecza attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 10/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 43% | Draw 28% | Nieciecza 29%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 20%, Nieciecza 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Nieciecza's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Nieciecza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights