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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock and GKS Katowice finished level at 1-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.83 xG and GKS Katowice 0.74 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against GKS Katowice attack 0.74 / defence 1.31, drawn from 8/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 63% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 14%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 25%, GKS Katowice 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights