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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Arka Gdynia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Wisla Plock.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arka Gdynia beat Wisla Plock 0-3 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.63 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.69 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Arka Gdynia outscored their 0.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.62 / defence 1.42, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 14%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Arka Gdynia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 22%, Arka Gdynia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.43 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arka Gdynia win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights