Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Zaglebie Lubin travel to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to take on Wisla Krakow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.67 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Krakow's home record at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 3W 0D 0L from 3 Ekstraklasa appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.67 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.67 PPG (Wisla Krakow) versus 1.20 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wisla Krakow, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 83% versus Zaglebie Lubin 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 83% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.30 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.956 / defence 0.890 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.817 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 6 Wisla Krakow games / 39 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 41% | Draw 35% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Krakow 67% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 41% | Draw 35% | Zaglebie Lubin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.30 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.956 / def 0.890 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.817 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Zaglebie Lubin xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 41% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wisla Krakow's attack rating (0.96) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
41%
2.41
35%
2.89
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.25
0.95
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.41
41%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.95 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 2L across 6 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Krakow on 1.67 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wisla Krakow have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zaglebie Lubin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Krakow are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 0.83 scored and 0.83 conceded. Wisla Krakow's scoring rate against Zaglebie Lubin's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: Zaglebie Lubin in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Wisla Krakow or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 11 December 2021, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Krakow see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 67%, Zaglebie Lubin 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Wisla Krakow) and 33% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 33%; Zaglebie Lubin in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.