Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Krakow at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana plays host to Wisla Krakow versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wisla Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games (1.89 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Krakow have posted 5W 0D 0L at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.89 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.69 in Wisla Krakow's favour (1.89 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 78% and Widzew Łódź 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 67% | Widzew Łódź 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.33 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.022 / defence 0.796 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.993 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Wisla Krakow's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 9 Wisla Krakow games / 43 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 40% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 25%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Widzew Łódź 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Krakow 60% | Widzew Łódź 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 40% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.33 / Widzew Łódź 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.022 / def 0.796 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.993 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Widzew Łódź xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 40% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Krakow's attack at 1.02x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.99x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
40%
2.53
35%
2.83
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.36
1.03
Widzew Łódź xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
7%
14.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.03 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 5W 2D 2L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 1W 6D 2L from 9 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wisla Krakow are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wisla Krakow have posted 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Widzew Łódź travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.44 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Widzew Łódź in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 6D 2L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Wisla Krakow or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 50%, Widzew Łódź 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wisla Krakow) and 25% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 25% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.