Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Wisla Krakow welcome Raków Częstochowa to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 outings — a 1.57 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 1.57 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Krakow have posted 3W 0D 0L at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.57 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Krakow 1.57 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wisla Krakow register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wisla Krakow, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 86% and Raków Częstochowa 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wisla Krakow 71% | Raków Częstochowa 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.56 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.946 / defence 0.911 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.982 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.278. Data: 6 Wisla Krakow games / 39 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 25%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 67% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.56 / Raków Częstochowa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.946 / def 0.911 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.982 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Raków Częstochowa xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 44% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.18
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.70
1.14
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
5%
19.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.14 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 5L across 7 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Krakow by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Raków Częstochowa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wisla Krakow have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; Raków Częstochowa in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Krakow see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wisla Krakow at 67%, Raków Częstochowa at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Wisla Krakow and 100% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wisla Krakow's games and 100% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 100% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.