Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wisla Krakow at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana plays host to Wisla Krakow versus Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Krakow have collected 1.75 PPG across 8 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.88 goals per game, with 1.38 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow's home record at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 4W 0D 0L from 4 Ekstraklasa appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.75 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Motor Lublin (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Motor Lublin have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Wisla Krakow. A 1.15 PPG lead over Motor Lublin (1.75 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Wisla Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 75% and Motor Lublin 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 62% | Motor Lublin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.82 xG and Motor Lublin 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.009 / defence 0.771 | Motor Lublin attack 0.981 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.223. Wisla Krakow's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 8 Wisla Krakow games / 42 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 55% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 16%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Motor Lublin 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Krakow (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 50% | Motor Lublin 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 55% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.82 / Motor Lublin 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.009 / def 0.771 | Motor Lublin attack 0.981 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Motor Lublin xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 55% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Motor Lublin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Motor Lublin in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Motor Lublin (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Motor Lublin's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Motor Lublin's attack (0.98x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
55%
1.80
29%
3.48
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.75
0.93
Motor Lublin xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
3%
39.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.93 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 4W 2D 2L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Motor Lublin's form line: 1W 2D 5L from 8 games, 0.62 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wisla Krakow are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Motor Lublin.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wisla Krakow have posted 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Motor Lublin have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Motor Lublin in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Motor Lublin away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 0.50 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Wisla Krakow, 100% for Motor Lublin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Wisla Krakow and 75% for Motor Lublin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Motor Lublin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wisla Krakow's games and 100% of Motor Lublin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 75% of Motor Lublin's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.