Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana plays host to Wisla Krakow versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Krakow have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Krakow's home record at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 3W 0D 0L from 3 Ekstraklasa appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.67 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.67 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Wisla Krakow, 0 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 83% and Cracovia Krakow 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wisla Krakow 83% | Cracovia Krakow 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.24 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.956 / defence 0.890 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.721 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 6 Wisla Krakow games / 40 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 42% | Draw 36% | Cracovia Krakow 22%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | Cracovia Krakow 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Krakow as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Krakow 67% | Cracovia Krakow 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 42% | Draw 36% | Cracovia Krakow 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.24 / Cracovia Krakow 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.956 / def 0.890 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.721 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cracovia Krakow xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 42% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Krakow 1W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 0W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Krakow's attack at 0.96x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.72x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
42%
2.36
36%
2.79
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.07
0.84
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.36
42%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
6%
15.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.84 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 2L across 6 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Wisla Krakow against 1.33 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wisla Krakow have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cracovia Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Krakow are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Wisla Krakow or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
0
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Krakow see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 67%, Cracovia Krakow 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Wisla Krakow) and 33% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 67%; Cracovia Krakow in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 33% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 33% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.