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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Piast Gliwice make the trip to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to face Wieczysta Kraków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Piast Gliwice haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.33 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.053 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 0 Wieczysta Kraków games / 34 Piast Gliwice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 35% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 38%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Piast Gliwice 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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