Wieczysta Kraków 1-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wieczysta Kraków at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana plays host to Wieczysta Kraków versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 16 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wieczysta Kraków have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wieczysta Kraków's home record at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Wieczysta Kraków are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Wieczysta Kraków's favour (0.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Raków Częstochowa in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Wieczysta Kraków goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games.
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 70% and Raków Częstochowa 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wieczysta Kraków 70% | Raków Częstochowa 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.68 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.975 / defence 0.953 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.951 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.334. Data: 10 Wieczysta Kraków games / 44 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 45% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 24%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 4.17. Wieczysta Kraków hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wieczysta Kraków as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wieczysta Kraków if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 67% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 45% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.68 / Raków Częstochowa 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.975 / def 0.953 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.951 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Wieczysta Kraków (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Raków Częstochowa xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa?
Wieczysta Kraków 1 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 45% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wieczysta Kraków the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wieczysta Kraków's attack rating (0.97) and Raków Częstochowa's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.95x) against Wieczysta Kraków's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wieczysta Kraków Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.24
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.88
1.21
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
5%
22.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.21 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Wieczysta Kraków have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 2W 2D 6L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games, 0.30 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wieczysta Kraków are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Raków Częstochowa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wieczysta Kraków have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Wieczysta Kraków are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wieczysta Kraków come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.30 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Raków Częstochowa in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 (0.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wieczysta Kraków at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Wieczysta Kraków's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wieczysta Kraków at home: 1.33 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wieczysta Kraków
0
Draws
1
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Wieczysta Kraków 1-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Wieczysta Kraków, 67% for Raków Częstochowa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Wieczysta Kraków and 67% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wieczysta Kraków keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 67% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wieczysta Kraków's matches and 67% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Wieczysta Kraków 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Wieczysta Kraków 1-2 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wieczysta Kraków 1.68 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.21 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wieczysta Kraków 45% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 24%, with Wieczysta Kraków to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Raków Częstochowa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wieczysta Kraków 70%, Raków Częstochowa 90%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wieczysta Kraków's trading profile (10 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (10 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wieczysta Kraków arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.30. Form was overturned, with Raków Częstochowa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wieczysta Kraków (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.