Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wieczysta Kraków at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 22 as Wieczysta Kraków welcome Cracovia Krakow to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 outings — a 0.62 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 2.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.12 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.62 PPG (Wieczysta Kraków) versus 0.90 (Cracovia Krakow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wieczysta Kraków, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wieczysta Kraków in-play and half-time data (8 games): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (8 games): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 75% and Cracovia Krakow 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wieczysta Kraków 62% | Cracovia Krakow 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.32 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.802 / defence 1.125 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.838 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Data: 8 Wieczysta Kraków games / 43 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 35% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 31%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Cracovia Krakow 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wieczysta Kraków as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wieczysta Kraków offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 75% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 35% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.32 / Cracovia Krakow 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.802 / def 1.125 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.838 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Wieczysta Kraków (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Cracovia Krakow xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 35% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Wieczysta Kraków the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Wieczysta Kraków 0W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.12 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wieczysta Kraków's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Wieczysta Kraków's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wieczysta Kraków Win
35%
2.85
34%
2.92
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.56
1.23
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.23 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wieczysta Kraków's recent record stands at 1W 2D 5L from 8 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 5L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wieczysta Kraków on 0.62 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.12 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wieczysta Kraków
0
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 3-2 Wieczysta Kraków.
Who has won more matches between Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wieczysta Kraków at 75%, Cracovia Krakow at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Wieczysta Kraków and 62% for Cracovia Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 62% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wieczysta Kraków's matches and 62% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.