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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Zaglebie Lubin travel to to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Widzew Łódź's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Zaglebie Lubin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Widzew Łódź carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Widzew Łódź, 4 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Zaglebie Lubin 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.35 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.997 / defence 0.888 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.970 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Widzew Łódź games / 34 Zaglebie Lubin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 27%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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