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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 17 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at , Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.75 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.997 / defence 0.888 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Widzew Łódź games / 0 Wisla Krakow games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 57% | Draw 25% | Wisla Krakow 18%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Wisla Krakow 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Widzew Łódź (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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