Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Widzew Łódź welcome Raków Częstochowa to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 0.60 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Widzew Łódź.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 55% and Raków Częstochowa 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Raków Częstochowa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.33 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.793 / defence 0.965 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.010 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Widzew Łódź's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Widzew Łódź games / 47 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 36% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 33%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 70% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 36% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.33 / Raków Częstochowa 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.793 / def 0.965 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.010 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Raków Częstochowa xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 36% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 3 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
36%
2.77
31%
3.22
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.59
1.26
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.26 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 14D 20L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.36 PPG from 47 outings (19W 7D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.13 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 8W 9D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (9W 3D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.49 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 14D 20L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 19W 7D 21L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.43 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Widzew Łódź at 61%, Raków Częstochowa at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Widzew Łódź) and 65% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Widzew Łódź's games and 74% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 65% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.