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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 17 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Current Form

Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Widzew Łódź 2W, Radomiak Radom 3W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 51% and Radomiak Radom 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Radomiak Radom 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.81 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.828 / defence 0.868 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.042 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.237. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Widzew Łódź games / 45 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 53% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Radomiak Radom 4.35. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 30% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.

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