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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Pogon Szczecin make the trip to to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Widzew Łódź (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Widzew Łódź at this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pogon Szczecin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Widzew Łódź, 1.40 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 8 meetings, Pogon Szczecin have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Widzew Łódź's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Pogon Szczecin 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Pogon Szczecin 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.45 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.997 / defence 0.888 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.996 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Widzew Łódź games / 34 Pogon Szczecin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 46% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 26%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Pogon Szczecin 3.85. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | Pogon Szczecin 40%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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