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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice encounter.

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Match Analysis

Widzew Łódź host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Widzewa Lodz in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Piast Gliwice's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Piast Gliwice in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Widzew Łódź hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 2 for Piast Gliwice, with 0 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Widzew Łódź winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Widzew Łódź and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 49% versus Piast Gliwice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 45% | Piast Gliwice 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.45 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.990 / defence 0.787 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.085 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Widzew Łódź's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Widzew Łódź games / 67 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 4.00. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Widzew Łódź 60% | Piast Gliwice 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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