🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce meet at in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Widzew Łódź (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 5W 3D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Korona Kielce haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Widzew Łódź. A 0.50 PPG lead over Korona Kielce (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Across the last 8 meetings, Korona Kielce have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Widzew Łódź's 2, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Korona Kielce winning.

It is worth noting that Korona Kielce have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Korona Kielce 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Korona Kielce 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.54 xG and Korona Kielce 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.997 / defence 0.886 | Korona Kielce attack 0.937 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Widzew Łódź games / 34 Korona Kielce games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 50% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 23%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Korona Kielce 4.35. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Korona Kielce lead the H2H ledger, but Widzew Łódź carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | Korona Kielce 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights