🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Widzew Łódź (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Widzew Łódź face Cracovia Krakow.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Widzew Łódź have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Widzew Łódź's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Cracovia Krakow (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cracovia Krakow haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Widzew Łódź's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Cracovia Krakow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Cracovia Krakow 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.59 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.998 / defence 0.894 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.949 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Widzew Łódź games / 34 Cracovia Krakow games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 50% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 22%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Cracovia Krakow 4.55. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | Cracovia Krakow 30%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights