Widzew Łódź 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Widzew Łódź have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Cracovia Krakow managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with Widzew Łódź winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Widzew Łódź and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 62% versus Cracovia Krakow 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 51% | Cracovia Krakow 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.42 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.007 / defence 1.084 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.184 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.123. Data: 53 Widzew Łódź games / 53 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 36% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 37%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 50% | Cracovia Krakow 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 36% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.42 / Cracovia Krakow 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.007 / def 1.084 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.184 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Cracovia Krakow xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 36% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (5 meetings): Widzew Łódź 3W | Draws 2 | Cracovia Krakow 0W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 1.01x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.18x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
36%
2.75
26%
3.81
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.86
1.44
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.44 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 20W 11D 22L from 53 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 17W 20D 16L across 53 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.34 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 14W 2D 10L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 9W 9D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.53 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 20W 11D 22L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 20D 16L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.69 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
4
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 46%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Widzew Łódź) and 38% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 31%; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 27% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 38% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.42 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.44 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 36% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 37%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 51%, Cracovia Krakow 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.34 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.