🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 4, as Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.58 xG and Wisla Plock 0.92 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.98 / defence 0.76 against Wisla Plock attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 53% | Draw 25% | Wisla Plock 22%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 67%, Wisla Plock 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Widzew Łódź managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Wisla Plock managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights