Widzew Łódź 0-1 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań meet at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Warta Poznań (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Warta Poznań have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Warta Poznań and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Warta Poznań winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Widzew Łódź 46% | Warta Poznań 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.12 xG and Warta Poznań 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.906 / defence 0.949 | Warta Poznań attack 0.944 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.204. Data: 46 Widzew Łódź games / 47 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 32%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Warta Poznań 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 40% | Warta Poznań 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.12 / Warta Poznań 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.906 / def 0.949 | Warta Poznań attack 0.944 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Warta Poznań xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 1 Warta Poznań.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 34% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań?
Record (2 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 0 | Warta Poznań 1W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.91) and Warta Poznań's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.94x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
34%
2.92
34%
2.97
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.20
1.08
Warta Poznań xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.08 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 15W 11D 20L from 46 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 17L across 46 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.28 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 9W 3D 10L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 9W 4D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.09 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 15W 14D 17L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Warta Poznań away?
Warta Poznań's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.36 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Warta Poznań have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
3
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań?
From 4 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Warta Poznań have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Warta Poznań 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 46%, Warta Poznań 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Widzew Łódź) and 27% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 41%; Warta Poznań in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 32% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 27% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Warta Poznań defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Widzew Łódź 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.12 xG and Warta Poznań 1.08 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Warta Poznań attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 32%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Warta Poznań win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 46%, Warta Poznań 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.22 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.