Widzew Łódź vs Stal Mielec – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Stal Mielec 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Stal Mielec 2-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.52 xG and Stal Mielec 1.14 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Stal Mielec attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 46% | Draw 26% | Stal Mielec 28%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Stal Mielec 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Stal Mielec's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.33 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights