Widzew Łódź 2-1 Ruch Chorzów – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Ruch Chorzów travel to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 November 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Ruch Chorzów have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruch Chorzów, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruch Chorzów have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
Widzew Łódź are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Ruch Chorzów in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 64% versus Ruch Chorzów 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 36% | Ruch Chorzów 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.45 xG and Ruch Chorzów 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.844 / defence 0.957 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.728 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.155. Data: 48 Widzew Łódź games / 14 Ruch Chorzów games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 50% | Draw 31% | Ruch Chorzów 19%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Ruch Chorzów 5.26. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 30% | Ruch Chorzów 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 50% | Draw 31% | Ruch Chorzów 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.45 / Ruch Chorzów 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.844 / def 0.957 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.728 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ruch Chorzów xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 18 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 1 Ruch Chorzów.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 50% chance of winning, Ruch Chorzów a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Ruch Chorzów will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Ruch Chorzów?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Ruch Chorzów in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.84x the league average against Ruch Chorzów's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruch Chorzów's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
50%
1.99
31%
3.23
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.26
0.81
Ruch Chorzów xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
22.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Ruch Chorzów expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.81 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 4W 4D 6L from 14 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruch Chorzów, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 7L across 14 games — 0.64 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ruch Chorzów is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Widzew Łódź by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruch Chorzów heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Widzew Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ruch Chorzów's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ruch Chorzów are on 0.93 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Ruch Chorzów in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 6D 7L in their last 14 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Ruch Chorzów away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 2.00 PPG; Ruch Chorzów away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
0
Ruch Chorzów
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Ruch Chorzów?
From 2 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Ruch Chorzów last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Ruch Chorzów 2-3 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Ruch Chorzów?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Widzew Łódź 17% BTTS, Ruch Chorzów 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Widzew Łódź and 50% for Ruch Chorzów.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 33% of games; Ruch Chorzów in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Ruch Chorzów away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Ruch Chorzów?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 33% of Ruch Chorzów's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 50% of Ruch Chorzów's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Ruch Chorzów tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ruch Chorzów in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Ruch Chorzów 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Ruch Chorzów 2-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.45 xG and Ruch Chorzów 0.81 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Ruch Chorzów attack 0.73 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 50% | Draw 31% | Ruch Chorzów 19%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 36%, Ruch Chorzów 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.