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Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Widzew Łódź 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.39 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.99 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 26%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 48%, Raków Częstochowa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights