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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.57 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.85 / defence 1.45, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 47% | Draw 25% | Puszcza Niepołomice 27%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 48%, Puszcza Niepołomice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.26 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights