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Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Widzew Łódź.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 0-4 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.39 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.23 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.23 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 33%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 51%, Pogon Szczecin 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.31 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights