Widzew Łódź 2-3 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Piast Gliwice are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Piast Gliwice 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 43% versus Piast Gliwice 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Widzew Łódź 43% | Piast Gliwice 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 0.68 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.783 / defence 1.304 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.046 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.061. Widzew Łódź's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 Widzew Łódź games / 62 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 16% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 55%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 40% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 16% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Widzew Łódź 0.68 / Piast Gliwice 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.783 / def 1.304 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.046 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Piast Gliwice xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 3 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 16% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Record (1 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 0W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.68. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
16%
6.15
29%
3.42
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.12
1.45
Piast Gliwice xG
6.15
16%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
4%
26.16
28%
3.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 17.3 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.45 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 10W 8D 10L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 11W 6D 11L from 28 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.36 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 3D 5L from 14 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.07 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 10W 8D 10L in their last 28 games (1.36 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.29 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Widzew Łódź go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 6, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 50%, Piast Gliwice 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Widzew Łódź and 14% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 36%; Piast Gliwice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 29% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 14% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Widzew Łódź 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Widzew Łódź 2-3 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 0.68 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.45 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.78 / defence 1.30 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.05 / defence 0.67, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 16% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 55%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 43%, Piast Gliwice 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.36 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.