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Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Piast Gliwice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.45 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.99 / defence 0.79 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 45%, Piast Gliwice 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights