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Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Widzew Łódź 1-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.50 xG and Motor Lublin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Motor Lublin attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 51% | Draw 26% | Motor Lublin 23%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 43%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.29 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights