Widzew Łódź 1-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 August 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L D. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.00 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Legia Warszawa 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Widzew Łódź 50% | Legia Warszawa 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.39 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.944 / defence 1.382 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.884 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.175. Data: 4 Widzew Łódź games / 38 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 36% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 38%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Legia Warszawa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 50% | Legia Warszawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 36% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.39 / Legia Warszawa 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.944 / def 1.382 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.884 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Legia Warszawa xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 36% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-L-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.94) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
36%
2.76
26%
3.92
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.83
1.43
Legia Warszawa xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.43 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 25%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Legia Warszawa in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Widzew Łódź or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
2
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 50%, Legia Warszawa 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Widzew Łódź) and 25% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 25% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 25% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Widzew Łódź 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Widzew Łódź 1-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.39 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.43 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.88 / defence 1.14, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 36% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 38%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Legia Warszawa 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.