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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.13 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 27%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights