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Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Widzew Łódź.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Widzew Łódź 0-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.34 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.71 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.79 / defence 1.04 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.31 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 30% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 46%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.28 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights