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Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lechia Gdansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Lechia Gdansk 3-1 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.97 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.09 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 49% | Draw 29% | Lechia Gdansk 23%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 45%, Lechia Gdansk 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.17 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights