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Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lechia Gdansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Lechia Gdansk 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.41 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.25 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.97 / defence 1.25, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 41% | Draw 26% | Lechia Gdansk 34%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 42%, Lechia Gdansk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.27 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights