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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Sat 29 Aug 2026

17:00

Venue

TBC

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Widzew Łódź Win

38%

Widzew Łódź

2.61

30%

Draw

3.30

31%

Lech Poznan

3.18

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.1%

Home win

0 – 1

10.7%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.23

Widzew Łódź xG

Total xG

2.32

1.09

Lech Poznan xG

38%
30%
31%
Widzew ŁódźDrawLech Poznan

2.61

38%

Home win

3.30

30%

Draw

3.18

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

67%

Over 1.5

1.49

33%

Under 1.5

3.03

41%

Over 2.5

2.44

59%

Under 2.5

1.69

20%

Over 3.5

5.00

80%

Under 3.5

1.25

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.08

52%

BTTS No

1.92

Clean Sheet

34%

Widzew Łódź

2.97

29%

Lech Poznan

3.41

Win to Nil

13%

Widzew Łódź

7.78

9%

Lech Poznan

10.84

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.8 10.7 5.8 2.1 0.6 0.1
1 12.1 13.2 7.2 2.6 0.7 0.2
2 7.4 8.1 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 3.0 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2
4 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.228
λ Away (xG) 1.090
Total xG 2.318
League avg home goals 1.527
League avg away goals 1.160
Widzew Łódź attack strength 0.997
Widzew Łódź defence strength 0.887
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.059
Lech Poznan defence strength 0.806
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34