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Shock result as Widzew Łódź defy the odds to beat Lech Poznan 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Lech Poznan 2-1 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.05 xG and Lech Poznan 1.28 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Lech Poznan attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 29% | Draw 31% | Lech Poznan 40%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 47%, Lech Poznan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Widzew Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights