Widzew Łódź 3-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce meet at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Widzew Łódź have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Korona Kielce's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Korona Kielce have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Widzew Łódź. A 0.60 PPG lead over Korona Kielce (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Korona Kielce and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Widzew Łódź 1–1 Korona Kielce — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 52% versus Korona Kielce 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Korona Kielce 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.36 xG and Korona Kielce 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.954 / defence 1.049 | Korona Kielce attack 0.802 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.125. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 59 games and Korona Kielce's last 59.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 23%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.30 | Draw 3.00 | Korona Kielce 4.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Widzew Łódź's last 10 home games and Korona Kielce's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 40% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.36 / Korona Kielce 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.954 / def 1.049 | Korona Kielce attack 0.802 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Korona Kielce xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Widzew Łódź 3 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 26) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 43% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.80x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 59 games and Korona Kielce's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
43%
2.30
33%
3.00
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.30
0.95
Korona Kielce xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.95 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 13D 26L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.10 PPG from 59 outings (15W 20D 24L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.10 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 12W 3D 14L across their last 29 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.14 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 20W 13D 26L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 15W 20D 24L in their last 59 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Korona Kielce away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.34 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Korona Kielce have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won Widzew Łódź 0-3 Korona Kielce on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
6
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Widzew Łódź 1-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 48%, Korona Kielce 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Widzew Łódź) and 45% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 59% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 45% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 66% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Korona Kielce 3-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.36 xG and Korona Kielce 0.95 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Korona Kielce attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 23%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Korona Kielce 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.24 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.