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Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Widzew Łódź 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Widzew Łódź 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.34 xG and Jagiellonia 1.61 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.91 / defence 1.24 against Jagiellonia attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 32% | Draw 24% | Jagiellonia 44%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 51%, Jagiellonia 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights