Widzew Łódź 0-2 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Widzew Łódź face Gornik Zabrze.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Widzew Łódź have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Gornik Zabrze have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2024, ended Widzew Łódź 3–1 Gornik Zabrze — a Widzew Łódź win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 63% versus Gornik Zabrze 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Gornik Zabrze 48%). Note also that Gornik Zabrze surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Widzew Łódź recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.892 / defence 0.933 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.920 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.186. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 46 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 46.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 29%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.29 | Draw 3.62 | Gornik Zabrze 3.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 50% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.32 / Gornik Zabrze 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.892 / def 0.933 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.920 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gornik Zabrze xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 2 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 13) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 44% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.92x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 46 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.62
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.34
1.02
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.02 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 18W 11D 17L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 19W 11D 16L from 46 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.48 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 22 home games (12W 2D 8L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 7W 5D 10L from their last 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Gornik Zabrze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 18W 11D 17L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 19W 11D 16L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.73 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won Gornik Zabrze 3-0 Widzew Łódź on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
4
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Widzew Łódź 1-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 46%, Gornik Zabrze 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Widzew Łódź) and 59% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Widzew Łódź's games and 68% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 59% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 77% of Gornik Zabrze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Widzew Łódź 0-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.02 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 29%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gornik Zabrze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Gornik Zabrze 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.41 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.