Widzew Łódź 0-2 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Widzew Łódź 1W, Gornik Zabrze 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 63% versus Gornik Zabrze 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Gornik Zabrze 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.892 / defence 0.933 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.920 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.186. Data: 46 Widzew Łódź games / 46 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 29%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Gornik Zabrze 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 50% | Gornik Zabrze 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.32 / Gornik Zabrze 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.892 / def 0.933 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.920 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gornik Zabrze xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 2 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 44% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (4 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.92x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.62
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.34
1.02
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.02 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 18W 11D 17L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 19W 11D 16L from 46 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.48 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (12W 2D 8L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 7W 5D 10L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 18W 11D 17L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 19W 11D 16L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.73 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 46%, Gornik Zabrze 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Widzew Łódź) and 59% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Widzew Łódź's games and 68% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 59% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Widzew Łódź 0-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.02 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 29%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gornik Zabrze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Gornik Zabrze 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.41 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.